Title: When the Going Gets Tough: The Impact of Health Shocks on Divorce
Room: E22
Time: 12:30
Abstract:
We analyze the impact of unexpected health shocks—defined as the sudden diagnosis of
cancer, stroke, or heart attack—on the probability of couple dissolution using longitudinal
representative data on older individuals (50+). We leverage the longitudinal nature of
the HRS and utilize a quasi-experimental research approach that creates counterfactual
scenarios for affected households by comparing them to households set to experience the
same event in subsequent years. We find that experiencing a health shock significantly
increases the probability of couple dissolution by approximately 19% of the mean divorce
prevalence. This effect intensifies gradually over time rather than appearing immediately
after the adverse health event. Additionally, we examine several mechanisms through which
health shocks may influence divorce, focusing on three potential channels: mental health,
cognitive decline, and financial strain. Our findings suggest that all three mechanisms
likely play a role in mediating the relationship between health shocks and the increased
probability of divorce.