Title: Inequality and Conflict in Catalonia (with Daniel Carrera Abad, Andrea Pop Catalisan, and Gianluca Russo)
Room: E22
Time: 12:30
Abstract: We study how historical inequality shapes long-run political preferences. Our setting is Catalonia, where Christian counts expanded southward into Al-Andalus between the ninth and eleventh centuries at heterogeneous speeds, creating a frontier whose location was driven by idiosyncratic military events. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design comparing municipalities on either side of this frontier, we find that areas conquered more rapidly display persistently stronger support for the radical left. Southern municipalities show higher vote shares for radical-left parties in all democratic elections since 1977, a greater historical presence of anarcho-syndicalist and communist organizations, and more frequent protest activity. These patterns extend back to the Second Republic and the Spanish Civil War, including differences in militias, collectivization, and repression. We trace these effects to the resettlement process in fast-conquered territories, which produced concentrated landholding, weaker state capacity, and a large class of landless peasants. Our findings show how inequality under weak political authority can generate lasting radical political identities.