Wed, 11/24/2021 - 11:52
0
05/04/2022
Title: Real-Time Weakness of the Global Economy
Room: E28
Time: 12:30
Abstract: The heterogeneity of the latest recessions has created a need for policymakers to receive information not only about turning points but also about how deep (buoyant) an unfolding global recession (expansion) can become in a timely fashion. This information has proven to be crucial for the timely design of optimal policy reactions to adverse shocks, especially during the COVID-19 crisis. This paper proposes an empirical framework to measure the degree of weakness of individual economies and the global economy in real-time. We show the optimality of our framework with respect to existing ones in simulated and real-time scenarios.